While the government has planned to deconfine on May 15, 2021, the Institut Pasteur has published its opinion concerning this date. According to experts, a significant increase in hospitalizations could occur. This not very optimistic statement takes into account a possible good rhythm in terms of vaccinations.
In a publication (PDF in French/10 pages) of April 26, 2021, the Institut Pasteur mentioned the lifting of the braking measures relating to hospitalizations as well as the circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus during the coming months. The experts took into account certain elements such as the lifting of containment on May 15, the impact of the measures taken so far, the acceleration of the vaccination campaign or the contagiousness of the English variant. The Institut Pasteur has developed several scenarios but also stressed that these were in no way predictions. It is a question of hypotheses on which the trajectories of these possible scenarios will depend. It must be said that some factors are difficult to predict.
In addition, the experts claimed not to have taken into account the reopening of schools on May 3. However, the latter can lead to an increase in the transmission rate . The Institute also says it did not consider the emergence of the South African and Brazilian variants.
Researchers' baseline scenario incorporates 60% more transmissible UK variant than the base strain of the coronavirus. It is also considering curbing measures allowing a significant reduction in hospitalizations. However, experts believe that lifting the braking measures too quickly on May 15 could lead to a significant increase in hospitalizations . However, this would be the case even if the rate of vaccination increases to 500,000 daily doses.
In this scenario, the number of hospital admissions could – by mid-July – exceed the 3,000 per day mark. This number is a little higher than during the peak of the second wave, about a year ago. It should be remembered that currently, there are approximately 1,800 hospitalizations per day on average, showing a slight decrease over the past two weeks.
Some scenarios from the Institut Pasteur are a little more optimistic, however. In the case of a 40% more contagious English variant , it becomes a question of a lower peak. According to the researchers, we would then have less than 1,500 daily hospitalizations and in the best of situations, less than 500. As regards new hospitalizations, these could be contained in the case of a gradual lifting of limitations between May 15 and July 1.
The researchers believe that a more gradual lifting of the measures should make it possible to delay the recovery . This would then take place at a time when the vaccination campaign will have made clear progress. In the short term, experts predict a decrease in hospitalizations , at least between May 1 and May 15. However, some models have a tray instead.
