France is approaching the 100,000 death mark due to the SARS-CoV2 coronavirus, making it one of the countries with the most deaths per capita. However, a study recent estimates that if we consider the actual excess mortality, our country is well below the average.
With over 97,000 official deaths linked to Covid-19, France ranks eighth in the ranking of the most impacted countries. In proportion, our country has more than 1,400 deaths per million inhabitants compared to around 900 for Germany and 750 for Greece. Is France's anti-Covid-19 strategy so ineffective? According to a study published by France Strategy on March 28, 2021, this would not be the case. This work compared actual excess mortality between 2016-2017 and 2019-2020. However, the results show that many countries underestimate their number of deaths.
The authors of the study explain that the official number of Covid-19 deaths is far from reality in some countries. The death tolls attributed to Covid-19 are almost half the excess mortality observed during the first year of the pandemic. Based on the comparison of excess mortality (observed and expected deaths), the researchers claim that Europe is the second least affected region in the world after the Far East. Moreover, France would be much less affected than the European average.
For the purposes of the study, officials reviewed the excess mortality found in more than 65 countries. However, the latter account for approximately 70% of Covid-19 deaths (WHO figures). The scientists of the study indicate that Latin America is the most impacted in the world with an excess mortality of 51.6% on average. Next come the Near and Middle East with an average of 26.5% and North America with 23.2%.
The European average is 17.8% and that of France, 13.6%. This finding seems quite surprising, especially since our country has a rather old population, and therefore more at risk. For Julien Rousselon, the author of the study, the mention of certain factors to explain these differences would be irrelevant. It could have been a question of a false sense of security causing a disempowerment of the population in Germany (number of beds available) and in Slovakia (large-scale tests).
In the case of less affected countries such as Canada or Israel, it is more a question of low permeability of borders or certain geographical specificities (e.g. insularity). On the other hand, other countries have certainly downplayed the epidemic for political reasons. However, some states have been confronted with lack of administrative resources and/or statistics causing incorrect estimates of figures.
Like many studies, that of France Strategy also has its limits. Indeed, the excess mortality is not only the result of Covid-19. It may be linked to overcrowding in the healthcare system and the psychological consequences leading to lower chances of survival for other patients. However, a decrease in mortality was also observed in connection with a reduction in the number of accidents. There is also a lower incidence of other communicable diseases.
