Different teams want to know when the peak of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus outbreak will occur. Some think that we have already reached it while others evoke a deadline around April-May. In any case, it is certain that after this peak, the number of cases will stagnate and end up gradually decreasing.
As of February 8, 2020, the latest report from the 2019-nCoV coronavirus stands at 34,939 confirmed cases for 725 deaths . However, the question of when this epidemic will end is becoming increasingly serious. In order to have a semblance of an answer, it is necessary to determine the date of the peak of this same epidemic.
On January 28, we were talking about the predictions of Pr Zhong Nanshan, one of China's top respiratory disease specialists. The person estimated that the peak would occur "in a week or 10 days", around February 6. According to Professor Gui Xi'en, another local specialist, the peak was to be reached on February 8, the date of the Lantern Festival. Nevertheless, and although the WHO spoke on Saturday of a "stabilization of the number of cases reported from (the province of) Hubei", other specialists believe that this peak will occur much later.
A study published in the journal The Lancet on January 31 gave very different results. Peak of outbreak expected not to be reached until April or May, say Hong Kong researchers . Scientists had integrated into their predictive models the fact that the virus could be transmitted between humans. Furthermore, the fact that China has major crossroads such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and even Shenzhen was also taken into account. Before the measures taken by the authorities (e.g. confinement), numerous contaminations may have taken place. Several curves have been developed by the researchers. However, for each of them the transmissibility parameter was modified. However, each of the curves gives a date located either in April or in May.
You should also know that it is complicated to compare this virus to other diseases. In addition, coronaviruses mutate quite easily and 2019-nCoV could become more contagious or more pathogenic. In addition, a secondary source of contamination has recently been discovered:the fecal route.
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