A French statistician recently presented a rather worrying graph. These documents show that the increase in variants is for the moment offset by an overall decrease in the epidemic. However, this is a very delicate balance.
Should we be worried about variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in France? As Le Figaro explained in a February 4, 2021 paper, the proportion of variants in PCR-positive cases was approximately 3% in early January and 14% in February. Without being sudden, the evolution of the proportion of variants is still exponential. In a tweet published on February 7, 2021, French statistician Elias Orphelin unveiled several graphs of his creation. This contributor to the CovidTracker monitoring site wanted to locate the proportion of mutations in the virus within the epidemic in France.
The graph below shows where we are right now. The blue curve is for coronavirus cases. The gray curve shows the evolution of cases in connection with the British variant and the red curve, the progression of cases for all variants combined.
This graphic shows a fairly clear division and the presence of two different dynamics in France. The epidemic generated by the basic coronavirus is decreasing, but that caused by the mutations of the virus is increasing. According to Elias Orphelin, it is about an exponential increase faster than the drop. For now, the increase in variants is still offset by the decrease in the base epidemic, giving a stagnant situation. In Germany, the situation is different because the basic epidemic does not compensate for this increase.
For the statistician, the figures for the coming days will be decisive in understanding the dynamics in which France is going to be part. The interested party publishedthree other graphs (see below) for just as many possibilities. These concern a possible epidemic increase due to the variants, a continuation of the overall decrease in the epidemic or even a maintenance of the current stagnation, between an increase in the variants and an overall decrease in the epidemic.
So these graphs show that variants are cause for concern. It is true that these are at the heart of a different dynamic – more intense than that of the basic coronavirus . Moreover, Minister of Health Olivier Véran described the variants as “ new viruses ” and used the phrase "an epidemic within an epidemic" .
On February 8, the government published DGS-URGENT N° 2021_12 for healthcare professionals. The objective? Communicate about a variant containment strategy South African (20H/501Y.V2) and Brazilian (20J/501Y.V3). The British variant (20I/501Y.V1) is also affected, especially since it is the most widespread of the three.
