While more than 4 billion people are currently in confinement, a German report could spark controversy. Academics estimate that only 6% of people infected with Covid-19 have been screened! In other words, several tens of millions of people would be infected at the present time.
The official global toll linked to Covid-19 stands at almost 1.5 million cases and around 90,000 deaths . What if the number of cases displayed by this same assessment was very far from reality? In a recent press release, researchers from the University of Gottingen (Germany) reveal very different figures. This research is based in particular on a study published in the journal The Lancet (PDF in English / 9 pages) on March 30, 2020. The latter described a model for analyzing the severity of Covid-19.
According to scientists, different countries have identified only 6% of the number of real cases ! Moreover, the national and international media would considerably underestimate the true number of infections. In other words, the number of cases may have already reached several tens of millions worldwide!
German researchers have compiled a list of forty countries , some of the data of which ends on March 31, 2020. The document mentions the number of officially confirmed cases, the estimated number of people infected and the estimated rate of case detection. The report clarifies that insufficient and delayed testing may explain why, for example, Italy and Spain have recorded a higher number of victims than Germany. Indeed, Italy and Spain would have detected only 3.5 and 1.68% cases , where Germany would have detected more than 15%! Moreover, with a rate of barely 2.62%, France is clearly not to be outdone.
Elsewhere, some detection rates are even lower . Examples include the United States (1.59%), the United Kingdom (1.19%) and Turkey (0.12%). It therefore seems that the countries with the lowest rates are those that reacted the latest to the arrival of the epidemic on their territory. However, some rates are very high, such as that of South Korea (49.47%) which coped with Covid-19 brilliantly after a major outbreak of cases. The second highest detection rate is in Norway (37.76%), a country we don't hear about. Indeed, its record is very low, whether in terms of the number of cases or deaths.
The document presents an incredible estimate of the number of people infected. As of March 31, 2020, there have already been 11.8 million cases in the United States , 11.2 million in Turkey, 5.7 million in Spain and 3 million in Italy! France and the United Kingdom each have more than 2 million people infected. Note that if these figures are correct, the mortality rates would therefore be greatly overestimated.
