While stagnation in the coronavirus epidemic seems to have been confirmed for a few days, a Hong Kong expert is rather alarmist. According to him, the most exposed countries should take measures similar to those of China in order to prevent 60% of the world's population from being exposed to the coronavirus.
The latest report to date reports 44,794 confirmed cases for 1,112 deaths . Although the World Health Organization (WHO) is cautious on this subject, it seems clear that the epidemic has been stagnating for a few days. In Hubei province (Wuhan), China, the number of new cases was 890 on February 3 against 381 on February 11, a decrease of 57% . However, no one can say yet whether this is a temporary stagnation or whether we have reached the long-awaited peak.
In an article published on February 11, 2020, The Guardian asked Hong Kong epidemiologist Gabriel Leung, a specialist in the newly renamed coronavirus, Covid-19. According to him, what we have had to face so far could only be “the tip of the iceberg .
The expert recalled that the majority of confirmed contaminations abroad concerned people who had passed through Wuhan. However, researchers around the world agree that each infected person can potentially transmit the virus to approximately 2.5 other individuals . According to Gabriel Leung, there is talk of a “attack rate of 60 to 80% ". Obviously, 60% of the world's population is huge and even with a Covid-19 mortality rate of 2.4% - compared to 13.2% for SARS - the number of deaths would ultimately be simply mind-boggling.
Despite the current stagnation, we do not yet know if the drastic measures adopted by China have really worked. However, Gabriel Leung believes that other countries should consider taking similar measures. Remember in passing that China has still confined more than 55 million people ! According to the epidemiologist, confinement can prevent one of the most important risks, namely that the virus travels further. Last month, Gabriel Leung had already warned of the possibility that “independent and self-sufficient outbreaks in major cities around the world become inevitable.
When it comes to containment, many questions need to be asked and therein lies the whole difficulty. It's about how long can you lock down an entire city, shut down schools, malls, etc. Moreover, in the event of a return to normal, could the virus easily return?
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