British researchers have analyzed the possible global spread of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus from a different perspective. Indeed, it is a question of a model integrating the displacements of population linked to the Chinese New Year. In particular, the researchers have compiled a list of cities outside China most at risk from the virus over the next three months.
Not long ago, we mentioned the Canadian start-up BlueDot, one of the first whistleblowers regarding the Chinese coronavirus epidemic. By means of artificial intelligence, the experts were able to warn certain institutions very early present in Canada and the United States, then public health officials in more than a dozen countries.
The fact is that BlueDot has also collaborated with the University of Southampton (UK) in the context of an analysis based on an unpublished point of view. According to the report (PDF in English / 20 pages) published on January 25, 2020, this analysis was carried out by integrating the population displacements linked to the Chinese New Year . Additionally, the researchers considered travel restrictions related to the Wuhan quarantine.
Researchers say they used thousands of anonymized cell phone data and IP addresses , collected between 2013 and 2015. It also refers to data on international air travel (2018). Several rankings have been developed, including that of the 30 cities outside China (see map below) welcoming air travelers from 18 high-risk Chinese cities . The period taken into account is two weeks before Chinese New Year's Day and up to two and a half months after the same day.
However, in the top 10 of this ranking, we find two cities located in Thailand, namely Bangkok (1st) and Phuket (7th) and two Japanese cities:Tokyo (5th) and Osaka (8th). In connection with China, Hong Kong (2nd), Taipei (3rd) and Macau (10th) obviously have a place of choice. We should also mention Seoul (4th), Singapore (6th) and Kuala Lumpur (9th).
Thefirst non-Asian cities are located in Australia with Sydney (12th) and Melbourne (14th). Then we find two cities in the United States, namely Los Angeles (15th) and New York (16th). Finally, there are other cities such as Dubai (17th), London (19th), Paris (27th) or even Frankfurt (30th).
Source
Related Articles:
