A team of researchers from the University of Hong Kong suggests that the number of cases of people infected with the new Chinese virus may be grossly underestimated.
On Monday, the number of victims of the epidemic of the new coronavirus in China jumped to 81 dead, announced the Chinese authorities, adding that 2,816 infected people had been registered in the country. The previous report, communicated two days earlier, reported 56 deaths and around 2,000 cases of contamination.
Given these latest figures, it seems that the virus is spreading very quickly. Ma Xiaowei, head of the National Health Commission (CNS) in China, for his part indicated this Sunday that the new virus had an incubation period of up to two weeks and that contagion was possible during the incubation period . In other words, it would be possible to transmit the virus even before the first symptoms appear.
Based on this finding, researcher Gabriel Leung and his team at the University of Hong Kong recently estimated that the virus may actually have infected many more people than expected.
Based on mathematical models, they estimate that the number of confirmed cases with symptoms must have been around 25,000 by Saturday, January 25 . And if we include people who are still in the middle of the incubation period, the toll could be closer to the 44,000 people affected as of Saturday .
Furthermore, while the epicenter of the disease remains effectively confined to the Wuhan region, hundreds of cases have also been recorded in other major cities across the country, such as Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen. And as Gabriel Leung points out, “these cities are true regional and international transport hubs. It is therefore very likely that the virus will spread further from these new foci “.
For the researcher, the number of infections could continue to double every six days , finally peaking in April/May . “We need to be prepared for this particular outbreak to become a global one , he recalled during a press conference. Significant and drastic measures to limit population movements must be taken, as soon as possible" .
Scientists from Imperial College London also estimate, based on mathematical models, that each infected person in turn infects 2 to 3 people.
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Such measures have indeed already been taken. We recall that more than 56 million people remain confined in the center of the country to prevent the spread of the virus. North Korea and Mongolia have alreadyclosed their border common with China. Hong Kong declared a state of emergency on its territory on Saturday, announcing the closure of schools for three weeks, or the cancellation of the festivities planned during the New Year holidays.
For its part, France, like the United States, is preparing to evacuate its nationals of the quarantined area. "In conjunction with the Ministries of the Interior, Health and the Armed Forces, we are implementing a return operation by air for the benefit of our nationals “, has just communicated the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian, specifying that this evacuation would take place “a priori in the middle of the week “.
It remains to be seen whether all these restrictions will be sufficient to stem the spread of the virus.
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