According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Africa could become the next epicenter of the Covid-19 epidemic. If the latter is not contained, no less than 3 million Africans could succumb.
Currently, the African continent is not the most impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the lack of resources on the continent casts real fear over what will happen next. On April 17, 2020, major media such as BBC News and The Guardian relayed the statements of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). The ECA estimates that the number of deaths on the continent at the end of the epidemic could be between 300,000 and 3.3 million . The number of infections could indeed spiral out of control and exceed one billion! In other words, virtually the entire African population could be infected.
Obviously, this worst-case scenario could only occur if no action is taken to prevent the spread of the virus. The ECA estimates that the total number of infections could be "just" 120 million if it becomes a question of putting in place intense social distancing measures quickly enough.
Recall that the first case in Africa was detected on February 14, 2020. Today across the continent, we are approaching 20,000 confirmed cases . In addition, most cases are concentrated in four countries:Algeria (2,534 cases / 367 deaths), Egypt (3,032 / 224), Morocco (2,685 / 137), and South Africa (3,034 / 52).
You should know that the projections are based on current statistics and modeling from Imperial College London (UK). According to the WHO, more than 16 million Africans could be infected by the end of June 2020. No less than 20,000 people could then lose their lives in the next ten weeks. On the other hand, experts believe that their figures are uncertain . At best, the number of infected by the end of June will be almost 3 million (including 3,500 deaths). On the other hand, in the worst-case scenario, this number could approach 100 million (including 126,000 deaths).
Thus, a lot of uncertainty surrounds these projections. In reality, everything depends on how the continent will react to the epidemic. The WHO has already indicated that the rate of increase in Africa is similar to that of European countries. However, the latter are currently being hit hard by the Covid-19. One certainty, however:in the absence of measures, Africa will become the new epicenter of the pandemic.
