How future Covid-19 vaccines are distributed between countries could make a huge difference to the number of future deaths, according to a report. A monopolization of vaccines by rich countries could indeed lead to twice as many deaths as distributing them fairly.
A dozen vaccines are currently undergoing phase 3 clinical trials, the last step before potential marketing. Moreover, the first results are starting to fall. On November 9, the Pfizer and BioNTech laboratories announced that their vaccine candidate was "90% effective" in preventing Covid-19 infections. Note that this efficiency rate has just climbed to 95% , according to new data released on Tuesday.
A few days later, the American biotechnology company Moderna also highlighted promising results, with an estimated efficiency rate of 94.5% . These laboratories even intend to submit an emergency use authorization request to the Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) for availability in December 2020.
They are not alone in the "race". The Sputnik V vaccine is 92% effective according to a statement by Mikhail Murasko, Russian Minister of Health. Russia did not wait for the final results to begin its distribution within its borders. No less than 10,000 volunteers, people at risk and health personnel have already received their vaccine.
All these announcements have raised a lot of hope around the world, hinting at a possible "end of the tunnel". In fact, orders are pouring in. For example, the European Union has already ordered 200 million doses of Pfizer’s vaccine candidate , with an option of an additional 100 million doses. On the Russian side, around fifty countries have also shown their interest and more than 1.2 billion doses are already in preparation .
The question then arises of the distribution of these vaccines. At the national level, first, who will be the priority people? In July, the High Authority for Health (HAS) had proposed some recommendations. The priority targets would be health and medico-social professionals, seniors over 65, the chronically ill and the obese. In this scenario, France would need 46 million doses.
However, the question of the international distribution of these vaccines also arises insofar as countries with greater financial resources are already preventively stockpiling limited doses of candidate- vaccines. And according to a new report commissioned by the Bill &Melinda Gates Foundation at Northeastern University, the stakes are high.
As part of this work, the researchers analyzed two different vaccination scenarios. The first involves about 50 high-income countries monopolizing the first two billion doses of the Covid-19 vaccine. In the second scenario, the doses are distributed equitably according to the population of each country not his ability to afford the vaccine.
Result, models suggest that 61% of deaths could be averted if the vaccine were distributed equitably, while only 33% of deaths would be averted if only high-income countries accessed to the first vaccines. "It's quite a difference “, underlines Alessandro Vespignani, main author of the report. “We immediately see that on a global level, the second scenario is much superior, and not only for ethical reasons “.
The study has some limitations. To avoid making unpredictable assumptions about the future evolution of the pandemic, the team indeed preferred to examine what would have happenedif a vaccine had been available in mid-March , during the first wave. Without an actual vaccine, researchers also had to project themselves as to its effectiveness. The model here considers an efficiency rate between 80 and 65% in a single dose, two weeks after administration with three billion doses administered in total.
Thus, it is not known whether these estimates could be relevant at present. "There are still many unknown factors that are not accounted for in this model", admits the researcher. “For example, how many people will be immunized in the next few months? How effective will the vaccine really be? And even if countries have the means to acquire enough doses, do they have the resources and coordination to distribute them? "
Be that as it may, decisions about how countries allocate vaccines cannot be made based on a single model. “But so far, the results are clear. When countries cooperate, the number of deaths is halved “, concludes the researcher.
